Taking on False Favourites
I have not had much time to do many trades since the season got underway and we opened this site but I hope as we move into a volume of games to get some time.
I did at the weekend have a couple of opportunistic trades in the evening as the chance presented itself.
From a few queries that have come in it will be key that game selection will become apparent. Already I am getting the whiff that some people are trading anything and everything or losing a trade and “making a game fit” a later trade. My own approach to trading is to be much more picky in my games often just one or two a day, the priority is on managing the trade so I have as few full losses as possible and maximise my winnings with differing entry points to make my liability smaller as time decays.
A good example of a set out trading plan came in this trade I had on Copenhagen. Often in the first 2-3 months of a season the expectation is that big teams that start badly will come good and their odds remain unaffected. That is what has happened with Copenhagen who after a poor start to the season where they have won only 1 of 4 and lost both at home were still 1.42 to back and 1.43 to lay against Horsens who have started ok and sit 3rd in the table. Copenhagen are a Danish heavyeight as as such the price gets backed down too low for their current form.I placed the trade at KO and they had drifted slightly to 1.45 so my max risk was never going to be more than .45 of a point in the scenario of a full loss. 1.45 would be my max price to lay in these types of games.
I was trading purely on the fact that they had a chance of going behind or drawing at half time and the price was wrong before the game started based on current early season form.
My trading plan was thus
Copenhagen take the lead FH – trade out at HT for a smaller loss, if they go 2-0 before HT I take the full loss or the unlikely scenario that Horsens get back to 2-2
Copenhagen drawing at HT – trade out for a small profit or scratch on Copenhagen and Green on draw/Horsens
Horsens take the lead FH green up for a profit….
…..and that is exactly what happened
Horsens scored after about 31 minutes and I let the market settle and secured myself a nice steady green no matter what the outcome. The match went on to finish 1-1. So at this time of year and again at the end of seasons look at teams not playing to their max against teams dong ok and the home team is too short and offers you a low risk opportunity.
The second trade I had was a second half goal trade. This is one of my favourite trades and often I will if I have a bit of down time see what games are in play on Betfair (in leagues with liquidity). I open up futbol24 and discard any that have already had a second half goal or have a scoreline of 0-0. I then see hat is left and check the stats.
On Sunday one such game was Hammarby v Osterunds. 1-1 at HT and no goal in the second half around 70 minutes I decided to get involved based on the strong goal in period statistics from the Correct Score sheet. Hammarby nearly 90% of home games have had a goal in the secind half and nearly 80% of all games. Ostersunds over 70% of their away games and all games have seen a second half goal. With the match drawing at 1-1 it was prime candidate for me.
On these trades I put my lays in on a drip basis so I get maximum payout on a late goal and reduce the risk if the game has no second half goal. So you can see I have set my trades up here at 1.75, 1.5 and 1.3, if they all get matched and a goal goes in I win over £200 my max risk on no goal was just over £100.
Soon after I placed my trade a goal goes in so only my first lay was matched but a nice near £60 profit for a few minutes I will take anytime
I know people will automatically say he is only showing winning trades. I will show some losing ones and how I manage then when they happen and when volume increases that will be more likely but if you focus on being selective you will have many more successes than you do failures.
Members all seem to want to use a rigid system and bet every bet that qualifes, football is an ever moveable feast and there are plenty of opportunities throughout the day across the range of sheets and a range of markets. These are two of my favourite trades but i dont knwo what qualifies until the day and in the case of the second half trade until the match is well underway.
You can easily prepare a shortlist of games in the morning and see if any games go on to qualifty and as always execute with a fully thought out trading plan.
We have added a new sheet to the website today, Goal Times and this one is useful also for late goals in both halves or for scalping 0-0 early on. I will show some examples of that when the opportunity arises.