Taking on False Favourites

18th August 2017 Uncategorised 4

I have not had much time to do many trades since the season got underway and we opened this site but I hope as we move into a volume of games to get some time.
I did at the weekend have a couple of opportunistic trades in the evening as the chance presented itself.

From a few queries that have come in it will be key that game selection will become apparent. Already I am getting the whiff that some people are trading anything and everything or losing a trade and “making a game fit” a later trade. My own approach to trading is to be much more picky in my games often just one or two a day, the priority is on managing the trade so I have as few full losses as possible and maximise my winnings with differing entry points to make my liability smaller as time decays.

A good example of a set out trading plan came in this trade I had on Copenhagen. Often in the first 2-3 months of a season the expectation is that big teams that start badly will come good and their odds remain unaffected. That is what has happened with Copenhagen who after a poor start to the season where they have won only 1 of 4 and lost both at home were still 1.42 to back and 1.43 to lay against Horsens who have started ok and sit 3rd in the table. Copenhagen are a Danish heavyeight as as such the price gets backed down too low for their current form.I placed the trade at KO and they had drifted slightly to 1.45 so my max risk was never going to be more than .45 of a point in the scenario of a full loss. 1.45 would be my max price to lay in these types of games.

I was trading purely on the fact that they had a chance of going behind or drawing at half time and the price was wrong before the game started based on current early season form.

My trading plan was thus

Copenhagen take the lead FH – trade out at HT for a smaller loss, if they go 2-0 before HT I take the full loss or the unlikely scenario that Horsens get back to 2-2

Copenhagen drawing at HT – trade out for a small profit or scratch on Copenhagen and Green on draw/Horsens

Horsens take the lead FH green up for a profit….

…..and that is exactly what happened

Horsens scored after about 31 minutes and I let the market settle and secured myself a nice steady green no matter what the outcome. The match went on to finish 1-1. So at this time of year and again at the end of seasons look at teams not playing to their max against teams dong ok and the home team is too short and offers you a low risk opportunity.

The second trade I had was a second half goal trade. This is one of my favourite trades and often I will if I have a bit of down time see what games are in play on Betfair (in leagues with liquidity). I open up futbol24 and discard any that have already had a second half goal or have a scoreline of 0-0. I then see hat is left and check the stats.

On Sunday one such game was Hammarby v Osterunds. 1-1 at HT and no goal in the second half around 70 minutes I decided to get involved based on the strong goal in period statistics from the Correct Score sheet. Hammarby nearly 90% of home games have had a goal in the secind half and nearly 80% of all games. Ostersunds over 70% of their away games and all games have seen a second half goal. With the match drawing at 1-1 it was prime candidate for me.

On these trades I put my lays in on a drip basis so I get maximum payout on a late goal and reduce the risk if the game has no second half goal. So you can see I have set my trades up here at 1.75, 1.5 and 1.3, if they all get matched and a goal goes in I win over £200 my max risk on no goal was just over £100.

Soon after I placed my trade a goal goes in so only my first lay was matched but a nice near £60 profit for a few minutes I will take anytime

I know people will automatically say he is only showing winning trades. I will show some losing ones and how I manage then when they happen and when volume increases that will be more likely but if you focus on being selective you will have many more successes than you do failures.

Members all seem to want to use a rigid system and bet every bet that qualifes, football is an ever moveable feast and there are plenty of opportunities throughout the day across the range of sheets and a range of markets. These are two of my favourite trades but i dont knwo what qualifies until the day and in the case of the second half trade until the match is well underway.

You can easily prepare a shortlist of games in the morning and see if any games go on to qualifty and as always execute with a fully thought out trading plan.

We have added a new sheet to the website today, Goal Times and this one is useful also for late goals in both halves or for scalping 0-0 early on. I will show some examples of that when the opportunity arises.

4 Responses

  1. jb8426 says:

    Hello Ian and Team,
    Will we in coming weeks be getting new second half files with odds recorded during the Half Time interval, eg match odds, the various under/over markets, correct score odds.

    Also is there any chance of getting additional second half statistics, specifically
    P2HsipYh% , P2HcipYh%, P2AsipYa%, P2AcipYa%
    that is scored and conceded, home side home games only, and same for the away side.

    and further ask would be second half specific goal ratios(though i suspect they can be inferred from what we have already)


    • Footballdata4455@@ says:

      John – now it is international break we will be lookign to add more atbles and hopefully they cover a lot of what you require

  2. gurds91 says:

    Hi Ian,

    Could you discuss in more detail straight gambling vs trading out in respect to the FDD strategies. I prefer the straight gambling approach myself, to me it seems trading out is essentially a safety blanket where profits are being diluted. Great thing about gambling is all you have to do is find the bet, place the bet then walk away and record results later. It is very black and white, either you win or you get beat. There is no grey area.

    What sort of drawdown can be expected for example backing over 1.5 goals after 20 mins set and forget as per the advised strategy where 6 or more games been played for home team and away team, HA greater than or equal to 2.4 and CU0.5% less than 10. I also try and look for this criteria where the CO1.5% is high as well as we are obviously seeking over 1.5 goals.

    I have been selective just one or two max flagged up a day where it qualifies and strong stats, just using small £20 stakes as don’t want to expose myself much on these FDD strats, I have noticed recently in MLS for example we have been witnessing quite a few games that are goalless in the first half even with high goal ratios, lot of goals seem to be going in of late in MLS in the second half for some reason.

    • Footballdata4455@@ says:

      I will do or blog posts when I get the chance Gurdeep on all this site we are busy adding more files at the moment

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