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First Half Goal – Trade Example 4th August 2017

5th August 2017 1st Half Goal Trades 10

Last night from the data sheets produced for the 4th August I chose one trade to execute where all the figures pointed to a high margin of success.

I only chose one trade from 10 sheets, I would rather trade one game for a decent stake than sit all night bobbing up and down on small trades. I suggest you look to adopt this pattern of just 1-4 trades a day where the evidence really is in your favour and you will have greater success.

From the 1st Half Goal Data sheet I chose to trade the Dundalk v Limerick game using game selction rules and the strategy detailed in the members area

The statistics backed the trade up and the price pre KO was 4.2 for the Lay. Using my method I was going to much reduce this as I only wanted a maximum liability of £500.

I waited 10 minutes into the game and placed Lay 1

By waiting just those 10 minutes the price had come into 3.1 ( my trade by the time I placed it actually matched at 3.0)

8 minutes later I placed Lay 2

Lay 2 matched at around 2.5 as you can see some got 2.48

7 minutes later I went in again

Now we were benefitting from market decay and going in at an odds on price

5 minutes later this happened

Game over and a profit of 267.58 banked. Enough for a years subscription to the sheets paid for on my first trade using the sheets since this site went live. Had the game been goalless further I would have continued as per the strategy in the members area.

My liability had I bet at KO would have been far greater, much more risk to win the same money and harder on the heart and emotions, this was very stress free.

Get in the members area, read the trading advice, follow the strategies, and be more cautious in picking your trades so you don’t over trade and profit will flow. The success above is a combination of being confident in my final choice of trade and executing the plan according to the strategy

 

10 Responses

  1. kingnpuk says:

    1.Is there a help file to explain what all the columns in the sheets mean? most are self explanatory but some am not sure of?
    2. Looking back at the sheets I would of gone for Finn Harps v Galway but the 1st goal came in 13th min so would not of made the same profit as you, is there a reason why you chose the Dundalk game over any of the others?

    • Footballdata4455@@ says:

      Nitesh – I understand a Glossary is being produced for this and will be uploaded fairly soon

      As to point two there were a number of factors, but I want to stress this is not a tipping site and any choice of trades is down to the individual the strategies are guides as to where to look and by no means offer any guarantees. The game choice is critical to success and less is always more.

      I chose Limerick in addition to the published filters as also a strong home favourite which I like rather than two even matched teams and Away team have not failed to have a goal in the first half when playing away. Also not sure but have not checked that the game you preferred qualified in my preferred odds bracket.

  2. carlos says:

    Quick question for verification, the strategy says to look at

    -Home First Half 0-0 Total & Away First Half 0-0 Total

    I know where to look however, are we using the Home at Home or Home Total columns? and the away equivalent. The sentence above seems to be a bit unclear as Total is in the sentence so is it referring to the Total column or the figure in the Home at Home column.

    Thanks

  3. jb8426 says:

    Ian,
    with regard the 0-0 1st half lays, would you also consider using the last 6 games spreadsheet to check on stats, to get a representation of the more current situation. Would this make the method more robust, like the additional additional traffic light stats with the Oddsheet. So using the resources have available to get self best chance. no weak bets.
    Or am i trying to over complicate things.
    JohnB

    • Footballdata4455@@ says:

      John

      That is exactly what I do and why the 6 game sheets have been added I use those to check the long term stats are being produced now

  4. jb8426 says:

    Ian and FDD
    If possible could you advise how the criteria below would have faired last season, and previous 2 seasons back.

    Current Season
    Goal ratio 3.40 or less
    First Half Ave Gol H 1.90 or greater (S)
    Goal in First Half – YES Home at H 80% or greater (AM)
    FHGU0.5 @5 or less (BP)

    Last 6 Games
    FH Av G H 1.75 or greater (CP)
    Goal in First Half – YES Home at H 80% or greater (DJ)

    Criteria is both those set of requirements together.
    I can back test myself a couple of seasons in limited leagues (old statto lgs) but will take 30+hrs or so to compile. Would have to be a Christmas Holiday project for me.

    And if you could breakdown the various lay odds p/l.
    Say @3.75 to @5 range as well

    John Blenkinsop

  5. jb8426 says:

    hmm well i completed short study of jan 2014 to jun 2016 in the old statto leagues. ( only took 10hrs) inserting the First Half Gol Ave as above. Not the outcome i was expecting. This season the above criteria is seemingly flying close to +30pts up. But looking back jan 14 to jun 2016..no where near is flat virtually level over 2 years.

  6. jb8426 says:

    Ian, if you see this and have time can you provide any insight as to why the FDD stock standard method orignally given for 1st half 0-0 lays which made something like 55pts last season2016/17; but then this season hasnt performed so well. Same statistics and criteria but what once made good profit now is loss for the season. 2017-18 Why such a change around in fortunes. Personally i have found on paper over +125pts pts profit from 4 approaches to 0-0 1st half lay methods for the 2017-18 season, but fear what will happen to them next year. How can i judge if they will continue to perform in that same vein for years to come. What do i need to be wary of warning sign that a system will reverse on itself and prevent self falling into trap.
    JohnB

    • Footballdata4455@@ says:

      I think John that is just variance of stats, a solid bank needs to be formed for such swings, for example I have one FHg method over 200 points in 4 years but 2017 lost 60 points, it doesn’t mean it no longer works it is just a through followed by a peak, football median averages for 1st amd 2nd half goals will vary season to season but remain similar over 5-10 year periods. I will be adding and updating FDD over the summer now we have a full years data and incorporating some of it to FTS

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